France, England, Spain or Argentina? How the $5.3 billion betting market views the 2026 FIFA World Cup | Football News
After 100 games and over a month of great football, fifa world cup 2026 has entered a decisive phase with only four teams remaining. This was a historic semifinal line-up in many ways. For the first time since FIFA launched the world rankings in 1992, the top four teams in the world – France, Argentina, Spain and England – have all qualified for the World Cup semi-finals. It’s also the first time since 1990 that all four semi-finalists are former world champions, underscoring the quality and pedigree of the teams still in contention.There has been much debate over the past month over who will win from the inaugural 48-team FIFA World Cup, which has expanded to a record 104 matches and 32 knockout matches. There have been surprise packages, giant kills and emotional exits along the way, but as the tournament enters its final week, the contenders are exactly what the FIFA rankings suggest.After six rounds of competition – three group matches, followed by the last 32, last 16 and quarter-finals – the world’s four highest-ranked teams are just two wins away from lifting world football’s most coveted trophy.The semi-final schedule will feature two mouth-watering matches. Spain will face France on July 15 in Arlington, Texas, and defending champion Argentina will face England on July 16 in Atlanta. The defeated team will play in the third-place game on July 19 in Miami before being crowned champion in the finals on July 20 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey.
Who is the favorite? Betting markets provide clues
With four football heavyweights left, one of the biggest questions for fans is simple: who is most likely to lift the trophy?While predictions remain subjective, betting markets can often provide a useful snapshot of public sentiment. The two largest prediction platforms, Polymarket and Kalshi, attracted huge interest throughout the World Cup, with total FIFA World Cup bets across markets exceeding $5.3 billion. Polymarket has bets of around $4.2 billion, with Kalshi betting at $1.1 billion, with predictions ranging from the Championship, Golden Boot, Ballon d’Or, Best Young Player, Golden Glove and Fair Play.Separate prediction markets have also been created for each semi-final, giving fans an idea of what fans can expect from the final four games.According to Kalsi, France enters the semi-finals against Spain as favorites, with a 59% probability of reaching the final, while Spain’s probability is 41%. According to reports, more than $9 million was invested in this particular outcome.The second semi-final was considered even closer. England has a narrow lead over defending champion Argentina, with the Three Lions having a 54% chance of advancing, while Argentina has a 46% chance of advancing. Approximately $2.8 million has been invested in this market alone.Polymarket reflects a similar trend. The platform also supported the France vs. England final, with the France vs. Spain semi-final transaction worth significantly more ($7.6 million) than Argentina vs. England ($1 million).
France become the clear favorites to win the championship
When it came to the eventual winner, betting markets overwhelmingly favored the French team.Across both prediction platforms, around 39% of bets are backing Didier Deschamps’ side to win the World Cup, making France the clear favorites heading into the final week.The battle behind them intensified. England is in second place, attracting about 22% of predictions, just ahead of Spain, which accounts for about 21%.
Perhaps the biggest surprise is how the market feels about Argentina. Although they are the defending champions and boast Lionel Messi, they are currently the least favored of the four remaining teams, with only around 18% of predictions backing them to successfully defend the title.The total amount bet on the Polymarket tournament winner category is $4 billion, while Kalshi’s stakes are close to $1.2 billion.Polymarket’s predicted final combination also reflects the French team’s favorite status. A final between France and England is considered the most likely outcome, with an estimated probability of 35%. A rematch of the 2022 final between France and Argentina is considered the second most likely scenario at 28%, followed by Spain vs. England (21%) and Spain vs. Argentina (20%).
The race for the Golden Boot remains evenly balanced
The race for the golden boot has become one of the tournament’s most intriguing subplots.Heading into the semi-finals, Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi are joint top scorers with eight goals each, while Harry Kane continues to compete for the top scorer’s spot with six goals.The betting market is very optimistic about Mbappe becoming the top scorer in this tournament. According to reports, more than $55 million has been bet on Polymarket’s Golden Boot market, with Kalshi’s stakes as high as $16 million.Mbappe’s prediction rate on Polymarket is 56% and Kalshi’s prediction rate is 61%, while Messi’s prediction rate is 34% and 31% respectively. Kane is still a distant third, garnering just 5% of predictions on Polymarket and 4% on Kalshi.With all the leading contenders in the competition still alive, the race for the Golden Boot is expected to go straight to the final.
The race for the Ballon d’Or, Young Player Award and Golden Glove trophy intensifiesThe race for the Ballon d’Or, awarded to the tournament’s best player, also attracted widespread attention.In this category, Polymarket has about $7 million in bets and Kalshi has about $3.3 million in bets. Mbappe (56% Playmarket, 61% Kalsi) leads the way again, while Messi (34% and 31%) remains his closest challenger. England star Jude Bellingham (18% in both categories) is also firmly in contention after another excellent season.For the Best Young Player Award, Spanish star Lamine Yamal has become an overwhelming favorite. The teenager has 42% support on Polymarket and 46% support on Kalshi, ahead of France’s Desire Doue, while Spanish defender Pau Cubarsi completes the leading trio.The Golden Gloves are equally competitive. France goalkeeper Mike Maignan leads the way with 37-38% support across both platforms, narrowly ahead of Spain’s Unai Simon.Even the Fair Play Award has attracted a lot of interest from bettors. Despite being eliminated, Norway remained favorites, attracting around 90% of predictions from both betting platforms.
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